2010: The Great Restart

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I could stare at this image all day. Continually riding its roller coaster in my head – watching geo-political events, holidays, elections, and family gatherings, all unfold.

Whether we call it the Great Recession or the Great Nominal Spending Crash1 – I don’t think we’ve seen the interesting part yet. I predict a dramatic recovery & acceleration. The Restart.

A couple recent graphs I’m using as the basis for this prediction:

Dow Jones Industrial Average Nov. 2008 – Nov. 2009
DJIA Nov 2008 - 2009

10 Year Nominal-Real Treasury Spread Now at 2%
ISM Index: Strong V-Shaped Recovery Underway

My interest in economics was sparked by Black Monday, 1987. Back when the Dow shed 800 points in 2 days – falling below 1800.

The 20 years since have brought some of the most significant advances in technology, communications, and overall quality of life (yes, pat yourself on the back). I fully expect the same looking forward.

1. Thanks to Alex Tabarrok @ Marginal Revolution for the tip.

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