Why HD-DVD & Blu-Ray Will Both Fail

Last night, while getting an update on our latest winter storm, we caught a story comparing HD-DVD and Blu-Ray on a local network affiliate.

The story was all about which new format will fail, and comparing Blu-Ray against Sony’s non-adopted BetaMax (and dare I include MiniDisc and Memory Stick). It didn’t hint at a winner, but I see both failing.

Here’s one reason why:
BBC to distribute high-def programming on Azureus

Here’s another:
Swarmcast High Definition streaming

ELSEWHERE:
Tim’s voting for HD-DVD

“…we may find that consumers are far more interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality source material” – Clint DeBoer, Audioholics.com

“…by this time next year, millions of people will be able to play high-def movies in HD DVD or Blu-ray formats, perhaps through their game systems. That is, if they want to….But I’m starting to think maybe they won’t want to..” – Jon Fortt, Business2

“HD-DVD and Blu-ray, touted as the second coming of the DVD, will look increasingly like the second coming of the Laserdisc.” – Ed Felten, Freedom to Tinker

2 Replies to “Why HD-DVD & Blu-Ray Will Both Fail”

  1. I think both optical formats are temporary from a technical point of view, but will be adopted because of the big content owners paranoia over piracy. This will leave a large opportunity for community generated content to gain an audience.

    Clearly 2007 will be the year of iTunes video and Xbox Live Marketplace downloads, many in HD format, but if you want to watch The Searchers in HD, HD-DVD is the way to go right now.

  2. Things aren’t “Black and White” like they were in the days of the Laserdisc though.

    Take a look at UMD’s. They don’t appear to be going anywhere, and they seem to be selling fine. It’s so cheap now to produce these things that it doesn’t matter to the industry how many formats they have to deliver.

    Ultimately though, it’s the hard drive that will win the war. XBOX live service and their delivery of HD movies is just a taste of what’s to come in the future.

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