Yesterday, I was asked if I’m still holding my Dow 10k by Labor Day prediction – considering it now means at least a 60 point gain for the next 11 trading days.
Yes, for 2 reasons.
First, my original prediction factored in a 75-point daily shift.
Second, Conference Board’s Aug 20 Leading Economic Indicator report came out today [pdf] citing a 0.6% increase (oh sure, I called 0.7% a couple weeks back).
“the six-month growth rate in the index has accelerated to its highest rate since the middle of 2004”
“the 3.78% four-month increase in the Leading Index from March (97.9) to July (101.6) 2009 is the largest percentage increase in the LEI for a four-month period since the 4.15% increase from October 2001 to February 2002 at the tail end of the 2001 recession. ” – Mark J Perry
3 thoughts on “Countdown to Dow 10k”
Any thoughts on whether the rise in stock prices signals a bottom to the recession, or whether it is primarily the result of quantitative easing (i.e., stock prices are rising, but mostly because the dollar is being devalued)?
Pete – I’m using the markets in general – and the DJIA specifically – as an early sign of renewed confidence in the economy (so, yes, a sign the recession is behind us). From this perspective and without additional signs of inflation – I’m not sure the value of the dollar matters.
Wow: this is an amazing post. I had no idea you were predicting the markets. Wondering if there are other items in your crystal ball that are coming soon. Prediction for global conflicts? The new tablet from Jobs & co? Unemployment rates in Ramsey county? Come on, now, share the secrets!
Dow 10k is just the beginning!
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