I’ve got a couple target thresholds for the markets. I see these thresholds as milestones of forward looking confidence and stability in the economy – signs the markets have recovered and are getting back to work. For the DJIA – my threshold is 12k. For the NASDAQ – it’s 2400. Which was passed today. Simultaneously, …
Category Archives: Economics
Big Economy by Any Measure
Too much of the popular economics news paints an economically adversarial picture between the US and other countries of the world. Aside from the obvious issue that all economies are tied together because economic behavior doesn’t like to be restricted by arbitrary boundaries, the US economy is unbelievably larger than other countries. 3x bigger as …
Confidence is Relative in Markets
The DJIA’s eratic-ness (regular 100pt fluctuations then flat for weeks) has me looking for another metric of economic confidence, like a stronger US Dollar. (What’s with the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ following each other in lock step?) Back in August, Pete suggested the reason the DJIA was climbing was the same reason oil prices were …
Mental Exercise: Armored Trucks
http://www.flickr.com/photos/articnomad/ / CC BY-SA 2.0 Sitting in traffic yesterday, an armored Dunbar truck drove by in the other lane – not unlike the one in the photo above. All I know about armored trucks is that carry cash. Everything I know about cash is that it’s going digital (debit cards / automated deposits & withdrawals, …
Prediction: Dow 12k By End of Year
The Dow hit a 13-month high today closing at 10,226.94. A 200+ point rally today. While I’m still concerned about the 100+ point fluctuations in Dow’s daily closings, I’m confident we’ll close 2009 by recovering the ground lost in October 2008. That’s 1800 points in 7 weeks, ~30 trading days, an average of 60 points …
2010: The Great Restart
I could stare at this image all day. Continually riding its roller coaster in my head – watching geo-political events, holidays, elections, and family gatherings, all unfold. Whether we call it the Great Recession or the Great Nominal Spending Crash1 – I don’t think we’ve seen the interesting part yet. I predict a dramatic recovery …
Timing Off by 6 Weeks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,015 today. Making my Dow 10K by Labor Day prediction 6 weeks pre-mature. If you don’t mind, I’ll take both the loss on the prediction and the increase in overall optimism.
Countdown to Dow 10k
Yesterday, I was asked if I’m still holding my Dow 10k by Labor Day prediction – considering it now means at least a 60 point gain for the next 11 trading days. Yes, for 2 reasons. First, my original prediction factored in a 75-point daily shift. Second, Conference Board’s Aug 20 Leading Economic Indicator report …
Dow 10K By Labor Day
Over on the Twitter I’ve been predicting the Dow will hit 10K by Labor Day, with the deadline approaching, I thought I’d show you where my prediction comes from. The light blue is the DJIA from August 2008 – March 2009 (left to right). The dark blue is March 2009 – Today (right to left). …
Dog-Eared
Some quick reviews of the handful of books I savored during my recent trip in Mexico. The End of Prosperity: How Higher Taxes Will Doom the Economy–If We Let It Happen I found this month’s Economics book club selection (my first Kindle purchase) an extra-ordinarily frustrating read mainly due to the Fox News-esque partisanship. Despite …